What will it be? A little snow, a lot or the seasonal average?

This year's winter weather and snow forecasts are all over the map.

County officials, however, say they are prepared no matter how it turns out.

"We're ready," said Tim Burgess, chief of the county's Bureau of Highways.

His agency has 300 trucks, including about 100 private contractors, and 400 people ready to battle winter weather. The county's 14 storage facilities are stocked with 50,000 tons of salt -- about 2,000 tons under capacity.

County emergency management officials lead a winter-weather preparedness drill Dec. 2. The drill brought together the staffs of the county police and fire agencies; the school system, and the departments of public works, health, aging and social services to practice handling a severe winter weather event, according to Lt. Mark Demski, of the county Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Demski's agency, in conjunction with the National Weather Service, is hosting a winter-weather spotter training session for about 75 county residents Dec. 3. The training is designed to help people in the community spot and report weather trends to the National Weather Service.

This is the first year the county and the weather service have offered the training.

Demski said weather spotter reports will provide additional information and should lead to more accurate weather advisories.

"They're ground troops, basically," Demski said. "The technology is not as good without the human element."

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration long-range forecasts call for "equal chances of above, near or below normal temperatures and precipitation for the northeast and mid-Atlantic areas" from December through February.

"What it says is there's a lot of uncertainty," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in Camp Springs.

While the long-range forecasts are not so specific, Halpert said the next six to 10 days will likely be about 10 degrees or so colder on average than the normal high temperatures that run in the low 50s.

"We'll never be able to predict individual (long-range) events no matter what the Farmer's Almanac would have you believe," Halpert said.

Caterpillar science

In Hagerstown, the Hagerstown Town and Country Almanack sponsors a woolly bear caterpillar event for school children to predict the severity of the winter each year. Thicker black and brown stripes indicate harsher winters. Thinner stripes indicate a mild winter, according to lore.

Fewer available caterpillars and the thin bands of hairs, point to a mild winter, according to the almanac, which has published predictions for more than 200 years.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, based in Dublin, N.H., sees a harsher winter for the area from mid-December through February. The snowiest periods will be in early and mid-December, early January, early and late February and early March, according to the almanac's predictions.

Burgess said he doesn't pay much attention to long-range forecasts.

"I don't chase down caterpillars or farmers' almanacs," Burgess said. "I just take what they give me."

Bryan P. Sears is political editor for Patuxent Publishing Co.'s Baltimore County newspapers.

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